Abstract ID: 147
Authors:
Vera Ling Hui Phung
Kazutaka Oka
Yasushi Honda
Mohd Faiz Ibrahim
Rozita Hod
Masahiro Hashizume
Affiliations:
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Environmental Health Research Centre, Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Setia Alam, Malaysia; Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Cheras, Malaysia.
Abstract:Introduction: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a J- or U-shaped non-linear exposure-response relationship between temperature and adverse health outcomes. However, in tropical countries, the exposure-response relationship might differ, due to exposure to hot- and humid conditions throughout the year. Both cold and heat are anticipated to trigger respiratory health conditions, and the effects might be worse among vulnerable populations. This study examines the association temperature and respiratory hospitalizations among children in Malaysia. Methods: This study included daily all-cause respiratory hospitalizations among children (age 0-14) in Klang Valley and Sarawak, spanning from 2017 to 2019. Temperature data were extracted from the ERA5-Land dataset, aggregated into daily average in each district. We performed a conditional quasi-Poisson regression model through case-time-series design to estimate the relative risks associated with heat (97.5th percentile) and cold (2.5th percentile). A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was incorporated into the model to address lagged effects. Lags up to 14 days were considered after examining the fits of the models. Results: A total of 493,845 cases were included in this study, with a daily mean of 21.5 respiratory hospitalizations. The minimum morbidity temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1ËšC. The relative risk due to heat effect was 1.002 (95% CI: 0.981, 1.024), while those for cold effect was 1.057 (95% CI: 1.022, 1.094). Heat effects were observed at short lags (lag 0 and 1 days), whereas cold effects were prominent from lags 5 to 10. Conclusions: This study demonstrated the temperature-health relationship among children in a tropical climate country, revealing stronger cold effects and health risks over shorter lags. Recognizing this pattern may support the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Keywords: Climate Change and Planetary Health, temperature; morbidity; respiratory; tropical climate; Southeast Asia
